DOW

The dow is approaching its all time high. This level is an important level as everyone knows

that this is the highest the dow has ever reached. I would be very surprised if the high got

taken out on the first attempt , so for this reason i would short the dow at 14198 with a

40 point stop during market hours only. I wont short this level if the dow closes very near

to this level from the previous day. The attempt should be from a far away like 100 points

away. When ever it closes near a major resistance then the chances of a breakout are

higher so hence why this trade should be done from a far away basis only.

Another reason for the short is due to the double top possibility. When ever i see a share or

index approach a double top scenario i always short on first attempt. I always prefer a

double top short if the time since the last high is over a year ago or more. This way the high

means more. Just my personal feeling.

The reason it should be from first attempt only is due to all the shorts lined up at or near that

level.Its a well known level so its gonna put up a fight. If it pushes back on the first attempt

then it re-tries again on a second attempt fairly soon after then chances are there wont be as

many shorts there as the last time so higher chance of it breaking through. A good resistance

level should not breach on first attempt.Otherwise its not resistance. It will need some thing

special to break through this level on first attempt basis like a market moving news. Thats why

its wise to have a stop in play and trade this during market hours only as then the chances of

the news causing wip saws are smaller.This is due to all the main news being released before

the market is open (13.30pm UK time). If you placed a trade before the market is open then

you may get caught up in the crazy market moving hour before the market is open.The swings

can really be wild so a lot of stops will be taken out.



The above is just my feelings on the dow and people should only trade the dow if your

experienced . Its not a forgiving index so only trade what you can afford to lose. Always use

stops and never trade more than 2% of your trading capital on one trade.

Most important is

DYOR(Do Your Own Research.

Hi Diver thanks for that. From a non technical view I was expecting a pull back as we moved closer to the March debt ceiling deadline. Now they seem to have suspended this until May time maybe the rally will continue even further....I do agree there will be a substantial pullback its just a matter of when.

screencast.com/t/GoAIejKJYWqu





This chart is a very simplified version and is not intended to be EWT specific, rather to give a general overall view that most will understand

Well I think we are now very close to a big pull-back. The move up from 10400, which started back on Oct 4 2011 is nearing possible completion at around 13900ish (my data is not the best, hence the 'ish'). Granted it could extend a little further to 14070 area but, a pullback is imminent. When it hits it will go to, at least 12600 and, more likely, 12200.

My advice would be, do not buy into this market. Sell and take profits while they are there then, buy back in on the dip. All just IMHO.

WaveSurfer wrote: 2 numbers to keep an eye today for the dow for further upside

13784
13853

yesterday close triggered another buy signal on the daily, that doesn't mean it can pull-back before it gets bought again to:

13684
13618
13584

-div also seen on some time frames chart, however in wave 3's these can last for some considerable time and negate.

Spx terms im looking at 1499/1507 before we get a pullback to 1485 - 1472 and finish of int Wave 3 1523 -1550 for now.

1472 - line in the sand.

2 numbers to keep an eye today for the dow for further upside

13784
13853

yesterday close triggered another buy signal on the daily, that doesn't mean it can pull-back before it gets bought again to:

13684
13618
13584

-div also seen on some time frames chart, however in wave 3's these can last for some considerable time and negate.

Spx terms im looking at 1499/1507 before we get a pullback to 1485 - 1472 and finish of int Wave 3 1523 -1550 for now.

1472 - line in the sand.