DOW

The last words from my grandmother a few years ago was :

"son, always short a double top"...it wasn't clear at that time and i wasn't sure what she meant lol.

These words have been haunting me for ages- and now I think it's time to execute he last wishes . On a more serious note, I think it's definitely a key point we are approaching so I have put my orders in, at least the first touch according to remo's rule. If there would be a breakout of this range iMHO it will come as an ascending triangle to break this highs. So I think there will be a correction before a breakout to a new high.

Is 14,900 the magic number??????

I've been taking a look at the long-term view as under......





and a better view is linked here....
screencast.com/t/zEDYjuzVYd

It doesn't all quite fit onto one page. The main relevant missing bit is the origin of the low from which I've take the first point in the fib expansion - it's 570 back in Dec 1974 at the time of the oil crisis..... I remember it well... and the power cuts:(

Anyway, the high produced at (a) was a 61.8% expansion of a. If you project that forward to the present time a 61.8% expansion of (a) to get ((a)) gives a target of 14,892. Now that's based on PRT data so, rough figures let's say 14,900ish

Even more significant for the 'high pickers' is the consideration of what follows..... the pull-back will, once again, be severe ...... so why try to pick the top when the scope for shorting will be so big?

As has oft been said, the World and his wife is expecting this pull-back, so there's a whole mass of short orders out there with stop-losses attached. Guess who's vacuuming them up? Which, in turn, causes further extension in the bull market. Which encourages more retail traders to invest even more in short-orders.... and on.... and on ... until so much has been lost on stop losses they all give up and the pros step in and short the hell out of it!

Me? I'm gonna wait for a five swing move south, in one of the small time-frames to confirm the move, then jump in.

all time highs, mmm, i think a Bull may want to take them out , get one over on the Bears.
However my plan would be to wait for a retest should it breakdown. Good luck all

1 Pez 1 wrote: I too think it will overshoot it's high as it seems every man and his dog is waiting to short at this level.

I will bet small on first attempt and see how it plays out.

Everyone knows of this level.
But how are they going to trade it???
Im going short on first attempt only as thats my style of trading.
Everyone has a different style and a lot of people dont short.
A lot of people will try and catch the breakout to the upside(most beginners).
so its not really that clear as i know of a lot of people that wants to go long.
Most people on this board knows what im planning
Im planning on going short with a 40 point stop just incase.

so my point is even thou people know of the high on the dow what are they going to do about it.
I bet its a mixed bag.

I have a small SHORT position open from 13976 which was the high on 30th of Jan.

My SL is 20 points.

My entry was based on divergence on 4H chart + yesterdays candle making a LH and a LL

I have a sneaky feeling that today may be the day!