DOW

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Ycgdtwz1oj4hCjbtw%3D

a lot of stocks seemed to have a unusual type of triangle/wedge sort of formation....almost like a strange type of bear flag...

some of them have broken below those triangles in the last few days...does seem to be a change in sentiment this week imho...

Looking at the dow here on the daily....this also looks to be in this triangle or wedge type of formation...
its also very close to the bottom of the support line...
i make it 23300 (ish) for break below....and it could well provide the momentum trigger for a new phase down....especially if we see the 20 day ema line currently at 22770 taken our as well...

lets see...take it easy folks....and stay safe...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

longterm_view wrote: Is this the start of the wave 5.

up or down?

Is this the start of the wave 5.

Trendfriend wrote:
I think the market will at some point realise that this is not going to be a quick fix...flick a switch and we are back to normal again...it may take months if not years to get back pre virus in terms of the economy.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52236936

If this is going to be this bad...then logic would suggest the market should also have the worst drop since the 30's
off course the fed have their own ideas!

Indeed TrendFriend,

JPM reckons US GPD will shrink 40% *annualised* in Q2. (again, lots depending on Q3/Q4).

I think Mo El Erian nailed recently when asked about the "flick the swtich" analogy that so many Market Bulls hold. Massive the hit to the US economy - bigger than the 1930s. Unemployment is already (just a month in) at 14-15% - heading to 20% which is double the financial crisis.

The bull case which was dismanted was around the following points:

1. re-open the economy quickly (already knocked back)

2. flcking the switch will mean return to near-full recovery mode (not possible if businesses are out of business or made lay-offs. It will take longer and will be sequential)

3. No scars over the longer time (how can something like this be forgotten so quickly?)


The reality:

1. more indebted

2. less productive

3. less globalised

But look, I don't have the charts (yet) to back up a bearish case, and the market is forward thinking and always gives companies and alchemists a pass.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...gvsSqvDA/Nlr3J6w+JE=

Be interesting to see which way this goes this week...
looked very bullish last week....

I think the market will at some point realise that this is not going to be a quick fix...flick a switch and we are back to normal again...it may take months if not years to get back pre virus in terms of the economy.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52236936

If this is going to be this bad...then logic would suggest the market should also have the worst drop since the 30's
off course the fed have their own ideas!

have a good week folks....
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Thanks Remo, much appreciated.

When this wave ends, we can work out, where wave 5 will end.

I think the high of the wave is done, slow decline from now, company earnings may be bad.