DOW

Surely the only sensible option now is to go long at 14198 witha stop below the 14149 high?

If there's a chance to do that, that is....

Here's a quick analysis of the Dow when it has taken out it's previous (all time) highs over the years...

on the chart you will see: est breakout targets based on previous range vs actual top price and the respective difference, hopefully the chart is self explanatory....

apart from what i have put on the chart, there are some other observations to be made with respect to the length of time it has taken the dow to get to it's previous highs and once it has, the results thereafter as an example....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_historical%20breakouts.JPG

just something to ponder

Oh well the short did not last long....let's see if the Dow can stay above the 14198 level today.
I'd be surprised if this moves far away from this area as like I said earlier the NFP comes out Friday and that can make a big difference.
Watching closely

remo wrote: I hate it when the dow edges close to an important number slowly. The risk are higher for a breakout.
I'm still gonna short at 14198 during market hours but there is serious risk attached to this due to the close proximity to the all important number. I'm hoping that the bears come out and play when this number gets hit
I'm only risking 40 points so not so bad .

I'm thinking that the sidelines is the best place to be right now...

Still got some positions open, but I'm really not keen to add more...And as I type, more economic data to drive the Dow even higher towards 14250...

I can't watch so on my day off from work I'm taking the Mrs out shopping instead.

It will probably cost me a lot more than shorting the DOW though

I hate it when the dow edges close to an important number slowly. The risk are higher for a breakout.
I'm still gonna short at 14198 during market hours but there is serious risk attached to this due to the close proximity to the all important number. I'm hoping that the bears come out and play when this number gets hit
I'm only risking 40 points so not so bad .

As amo pointed out Fridays the day that the NFP comes out and this has the power to push through or break down fast. These numbers will determin the real direction of the American markets for the short term. Be very careful when trading during the NFP as stops can easily be taken out due to the massive volatility associated with this news. I've seen the Dow move up and down by over 100 points in the space of a few minutes due to dodgy numbers. One minute it was up a 100 then the next it was down by a hundred all before the market even opened. So be very careful on Friday particularly.