The dow has broken out today so i expect this to test the all time high.
Maybe worth a short on first attempt of all time high during market hours only.
im currently long on the dow from the breakout point but will take profits at the all time high.I will still keep some positions open as will move my remainder to break even.
its to late to jump on board.
If the high gets taken out then this can motor a lot higher so be careful on any shorts as there only meant for a quick trade only. The trend is up on the dow so longs are the way forward until things change.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow1stapril2014.png

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...sh%20%28daily%29.png

Looks like we should expect a completion of the retrace on the indicies. My view of the DOW follows my normal pattern in that I'm looking for support within the area of the 50 - 61.80% fibonacci retrace of the previous move up. In this case from 15338 > 16514 - it's highlighted in blue on the chart. There's support at 15,791 and also, a little below at 15.724, if that doesn't hold.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/US%2...20Cash%20%28-%29.png

A similar approach on the S&P500 gives support at 1,811.90 & 1,813.40


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/FTSE...sh%20%28daily%29.png

The FTSE is becoming a very complex correction and therefore my reading of it could well be completely wrong, however, my interpretation is we are now in an irregular flat with the 3rd leg due to end at 6213 support, again in the blue area of extension. There are alternatives, obviously, the favourite being a running flat, in which case we would already be into the next wave. In view of the expected action in the other two indicies, this appears unlikely.

These are just my views and are subject to change. They are not intended as guidance for trades so please DYOR.

Possible double top formation???
Worth a short on first attempt only at the recent high at 16588.
This will be a first attempt trade during market hours only.
Ive got a 40 point stop on this trade.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow11thmarch2014.png

This war that's hanging over the world can make the markets jumpy ...so careful trading the indexes ..

Funny how events sometimes conspire to fit the charts



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily28_02_14.png

Too early to suggest that this is a black swan, but Dow Futures opened down (-130) / gold opens up (by +10)

Hi
One lesson I learnt from Remo is to always watch the Dow when you need a clearer picture and ignore the noise. The lack of a high in the Dow is worrying me and I am concerned that this rise could still be a B wave of a bigger ABC decline. In which case the bottom of A wave in early Feb may get taken out in March/April. So until that high on Dow gets taken, I am a bit cautious. I like Dow leading rather than following.

Could it be Ukraine/Russia be the trigger?

Gee

Agree 100% WS, but the DOW is still making stellar progress in the wave 5: over 1000 points since feb 5th. Kiev willing, a new high cannot be far away

Dow has not made a new high yet, spx, ndx etc all have, Dow will need to eventually do the same to quantify the move off the lows as a continuation of major 5 of primary 3

WS,

I'm not so sure it's a question of the DOW catching up; more a case of the DOW in a 5-way move whereas the 500 is in a 3-way move. This gives a different feel to the moves, imho. Whatever, I'm sure you're right in being bullish

update chart from last post looking bully imo, just need dow to catch-up




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...28DFB%294hr28feb.png

also spx





WS

There seems to be a tug of war between the bulls and bears to close above 16250

The long range view from the weekly chart.......

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DJ%2...STRIAL%20AVGwkly.png
....if the current move doesn't extend this chart is showing completion between 18,567 and 21,422. Then we would be looking at a PULL-BACK - yes, the capitals were intended - this will be mega: my chart is only showing the last leg from 6,470 and you can read the 50 - 61.8% fibs for yourself. If, and it is a big if, it retraces the entire move from way back, then it is probably the end of the world, so we wont go there......but this would be a good time to be 'in cash'.

The Daily.......

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWdaily.png

and the hourly looking at today's business....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWhrly.png

update to the last chart posted below.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...9%204hr_invH%26S.png




rgds WS

Watch out for the 16240 level during market hours (the following is a daily cash chart) as that was the breakdown point. Possibly worth taking some long profits or scalping a short at this level:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily16_02_14.png

Just to add - I am also following very closely on the movement of the banking sector. The banks were a strong catalyst on the move from late last year. They are somewhat stagnant at the moment so I am watching that very closely (my intention is to get on the boat with Lloyds of the trading opportunity present itself - as I missed the last one)

Dow weekly attached.

I have one long open and sitting on the cautious side. A few indicators like gold and defensive stocks are picking up - all making me more cautious.

My view of the DOW...I have noticed a negative divergence on the MACD and what looks like the right shoulder in progress. This is only based on what i see. However, if this H&S doesnt materialise, we could be in for some mega moves up.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4385922/dow_Feb14.png

Cheers

waverider2 wrote:
this one ?

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...0%28DFB%29Inv_HS.png



or this one (full head not even formed yet)

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...t%20%28DFB%29H_S.png




rgds WS

Diver/WS- dangerously looking like H&S...

the submarine is my avatar it was replaced by the rocket on Jan 06 to advise caution on the indices on the long side, signalling danger, along with this alert on chat:



we all know what happened thereafter....

i will be replacing the submarine avatar with a rocket in the making soon once i have all the confirmation i need, no confirmation no rocket. in fact this is what i have had behind closed door for a few weeks now:




dow 15340 was a good price


hope that clears it up.

cheers

WS

Price is King

WS, I gotta say I agree with everything you say - well, the bits in English anyway Some of the stuff, "Submarine stays until path clears up but im close to losing it " is in another tongue

My chart shows resistance on the current move at 16,242 and subsequent support at 16,028.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWdaily.png

As far as I am concerned this is wave i of 5 and impulsive, and shows no sign of ending until well into 18,500's and will then probably extend further.

Relentless rally ?

rocketship in the making imo, Dow still has got quite a bit of work to do but it is in the process of generating a spectacular Buy signal if you think this move up was strong, then watch ...as discussed on chat

No sell as of close on Friday but is weaker than spx, nas etc and 1st tier buy remains which means any pullbacks to be bought, short terms i'm expecting a pullback once this move is complete, 16240 area is to watch short term, a move abv then the a test of Dow highs to follow.

Bull case look strong imo rather than this being a B wave up, impulsive 5 waves up i see, however next pullback will define it.

Submarine stays until path clears up but im close to losing it


in the meantime - what the fork, it's back in




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...%28DFB%29_weekly.png


all imho - dyor

Regards WS

Price is King

Remo, I noticed that you have ran your fib retracement from the Jan 21st high and not the higher high on the 31st Dec, does that mean you always run it from the breakdown area.

Possible short for the short term trade.
16070 is where my short is on a first attempt trade for today only.
by the end of today(9PM) my order will be cancelled as to risky to leave this over night.
for tomorrow ill have to re-evaluate .


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow11thfeb2014.png

Nice hammer on the dow...This is on the weekly chart


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow10thfeb2014.png
If the price comes down halfway down the hammer worth a long with stops below. Less risk this way..
some may buy on the breach of the hammer high but more risk this way. Both ways require the stop to be below the hammer..

The last 3 post shows the Perfect example of a first attempt trade and why its important not to attempt a second attempt on the same day.
The dow smashed through the second attempt


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb20142.png

Free trade..
Dont short at the same level again as the first attempt worked perfectly.
To dangerous on the second attempt


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb2011.png

Tactical short possible???
Im going to short the dow on a first attempt of 15703 with a 40 point stop.
This level was the breakout point.
This is for a quick day trade so only for the watchers.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb2014.png

If you consider corrective waves come in sequences of 3,7,11,15,19 etc; this current sequence contains only 5 waves so far, meaning at least 2 more to come?.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...Cash%20%28day%29.png
I've drawn a trend line from the start of wave (( c )) at 10,402.20, and it coincides nicely with the supports around 14,760 > 14716. So, it's down for me

Possible short on that back test of that trend line is a good bet for the short term
That trend line tried to give it support but the fact that it did not bounce fast from that area was the signal that there were a lot of bears trying to push this lower.The first attempts normally would bounce hard and fast so once this gets tested and it does not bounce fast then that normally gives the first warning signals to get out .First attempts if good should bounce hard .
I have that trend line back test at 15518 for today and a 40 point stop should be used.
stops are a must on the dow.
There is another method i use to enter on short or longs..If the candle is a massive bearish candle like yesterdays candle then i would look to short on any pull backs on the following day if the price comes half way up that bearish candle. This level for today is roughly at 15532 so adds to the trendline play as well.
good luck



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thfeb2014.png

Jackozy wrote:

Yep - it tried for about an hour to hang on to that trendline at 15514 but the re-surfacing of a possible US debt default put paid to that.

Possible short on backtest of that trendline, or wait for an hourly 123-low to go long for a Major wave B bounce (I'm now re-labelling 16588 as Primary III as it's hard to see it as anything else now).

14720 must hold for P IV low to maintain the wave 4 guideline (not a rule) and there are multiple supports for about 400 pts above that so hard to know which will give the bounce.

I agree sidelines is best unless you're a skilled Dow trader.

That backtest of the 16240 break would have been a great place to short!

Well I didn't see yesterday's move coming. I'm not surprised as there are so many options here. What happens now? Only time will tell. I have it at, roughly, the 23.6% fib, so it could go back up from here or it could continue down to the support in the 14,700's. I'll be sitting on the side-lines and watching.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...sh%20%28daily%29.png

Here's a daily chart of the Dow with a possible wave count showing plenty more upside yet to come if it's right:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily02_02_14.png

The trendline is at 15514-ish and that coincides with the 23.6% Fib of what I've labelled as Major wave 3 (of Primary III) which comes into play quite often in Dow wave 4s. Also 15518-522 has been a support and resistance on a number of times recently so plenty of support around this level.

There's a lot of talk about this drop being the start of Primary wave IV, which is a possibility of course, but there would still need to be a Major wave B of that and it would likely have to stay above 14719 ultimately anyway so this drop seems a bit too much too quickly to be Major A of Primary IV to me.

This trendline test will be key.

As most know i dont do re-entry on a second attempt of a support so soon after. This is dangerous ..

The best level now is to wait for the medium term trend line to be tested currently at 15505. This is where ill be going long on a first attempt basis.If 15703 gets broken the index may fall hard fast so there is a shorting opportunity for the brave on a breach of that level.Due to its support nature it may swing fast both ways so be careful.
There is an inside bar on the dow currently so a break below 15703 will activate this as well so extra bearish
For any new long positions wait for a 123 low to form on the hourly if the trend line does not give the chance.
If you look at the chart you can also see a head and shoulders forming. Some thing else to consider if we go back up from these areas.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow31stjan2014.png

im expecting the dow to head towards the medium term trend line.

This is a possible scenario for the DOW.....


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWdaily.png

..... if, and I mean if, this is a wave 3, then it only retraced a little over 14.60% of the move from 11,150 to 16594. Now, whilst this doesn't invalid the move as a wave 3, it would be more usual for the retrace to be somewhere between the 23.60 and 38.20% of said move. If this should be the case there is the possibility the move down to 15706.90 was just wave A of an ABC, with the target for a wave C between 15,287 and 14,739, being the respective %'s already mentioned.

The possibility remains this is not a wave 4, and this is not a five way move, but an ABC with the A finishing at 16,241; the B at 16,550; and the C at last evenings low of 15,706.90. This being the case ignore this chart: it's a pile of rubbish

However, if this turns back down between 16,151 and 16,255 , then hold onto your hats as it could fall to somewhere between 15,310 and 14,515..... a zigzag 5-3-5 swings, might bring us to the supports at 14,763 and 14,717. I favour this scenario but would be very happy to be proved wrong

Missed by 2 points...feeling gutted again....why 2 pips...why.....


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow29thjan2014.png


The first attempt trade has happened as it was only 2 points away so now its best to leave the trade alone.

With the upcoming Fed Meeting, tonight could be the night for this trade:



I'm in if it hits 15,703.79 or thereabouts (at the mercy of IG Markets).

Here's hoping for the same result as the previous trade (at 16,174.51); Fish 'n' Chips never tasted so good that evening!

Good luck all!

Patients is required with this index and you should not over trade this.
If you only trade at key areas then better chance of success with the dow


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow25thjan2014.png

This is approaching strong support at 15704. Ill be going long during market hours only with a 40 point stop.This is a first attempt trade only.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...Cash%20%284hr%29.png

For the scalpers; a possible long coming.
This is my 4hr chart and there is a chance this may turn at 15,830ish and retrace to the 16,060 area to form wave (iv) of (( c )).
This is just my view so please DYOR.....

Like yourself Remo, I'm watching this one...

Back to Jan 17, my position was set at 16,174.51, but hey, I'll take 16,175 too!

Now, it is just a question of will it "come to daddy". A caveat however: if the velocity of the decline is too powerful, then surely 40 pts won't be sufficient, or the other side might suggest a deeper correction.

Possible long coming.
Im looking to go long during market hours only at 16175 .
This is a first attempt trade and is the level where the dow broke out from.
Im using a 40 point stop.
stops are a must


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow23rdjan2014.png

My take on the DOW. These are Daily charts and they cover quite a large date range so they are split into two views; the C wave being the latter view; the B wave being the earlier view....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWwaveC.png

....to be clear, I'm not saying the pullback will occur now, merely that it is due and I would expect it to be around 23.6% of wave ((iii)). If this is the start of the pullback then I would expect it to finish around 15300.

This is the earlier view of wave B around the 2009 dip...


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWwaveB.png

This is just my view and my way of labeling, which I know not everyone agrees with, so DYOR...

here you go.

1hr



10min

Can someone please post an hourly cash chart (not futures) of Dow from the 240 recent low?

TIA.

Just a quick take on "buying the DOW dips".

If it plays out, I'd consider entering at 16,174.51.




(just don't hold on for too long as a counter retail trade could be on its way!)

Wishing all CV patrons all the best!

Those who regularly frequent the chatroom will know that Wavesurfer is the master of this index (and remo, obviously!) but I think it's worth looking out for a break of the short term resistance of the flag during market hours on Monday which will be at the 16540 level.

Note that there was also an inside bar on Friday and that would suggest upside above 16525 and downside below 16379 (which was also the 23.6% Fib which comes into play a lot on this):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily12_01_14.png

Remember your stops.

Dow yearly updated chart, perfecto !




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow%20Yearly13.JPG


WS

Your welcome, this my favourite index and u know how I trade this daily, both ways. This my bread n butter and hardly trade stock but a few. I have no doubt whatsoever we will see the targets, even ftse abv 6648 is extremely bullis, 7000 is not out of the question.

What I look forward to most, is the top callers coming in with abc bs from lows. Building a top is process, bottoms are an event, 2014-2016 im will be a top building process, a bit like playing jenga. The higher u build the blocks the more caution u apply...

Short term Dow can push up some more but a pullback is imminent and one that will be bought for a parabola move up, this move witness so far is only the beginning....16200 area is key to watch.

Extremely excited for 2014, and will be switching hats from bull to bear short term... Perhaps the mantra will be sell equities n buy gold short term. Bond 30 year t bills look juicy too. More of this when time is right.

All the best ws

Thanks for sharing that WS.

I've got a slightly alternative count for your more bullish scenario:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...owweekly29_12_13.png

Only difference is how I've interpreted the recent sideways waves but very similar nonetheless.

I came to this count having completely started from scratch by looking at the monthly chart after quite a while of not reviewing counts at all so it's as objective as I can be. My alt count is your primary one so caution suggests follow that for now and see where we go.

The 100% extension of Primary I comes in at 16795 but SPX smashed that recently (1778) and the successful backtest of it caused last week's massive candle.

Incidentally (and I don't think this will actually happen but you never know!), the 161.8% extension of Primary I comes in at 20769....

Happy New Year everyone!

Its been a while since i posted an update on Dow, was not much to say really apart from providing day to day views on Chat, my view has always been up up n away and not much has changed since my last post(s).

So as we end 2013 and enter 2014, what's in store for this market ? do i hear/see a bubble expanding and substantial new highs to come ? The Bull market extends 2015/2016 but within that time frame there will be a significant correction approx ~2000/3000 pips on the Dow, followed by new highs to complete the bull market (pri IV & V), we are still in Primary III (parabolic).

My Personal objective as a minimum next year and possibly into 2015/6 is ~10000 Dow pips on swing basis, intra-day trading will add more coin to it


and here is how i see it coming for now - these are just projections and more accurate price points can be determined near the time based on time and price action etc. i'll monitor and adjust. the chart posted contains 2 counts a primary and alternative - both Bully.

Pri III Target = ~17600 or 18200/18283
Pri IV Target = ~15289
Pri V Target = 19261 or 21965



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_weekly_29thDec2013.JPG

All imho, dyor.

rgds,

WS - bully going into 2014

WaveSurfer wrote: