2000 dot.com bear market

2000 Aug 2001 Mar -29%
2001 Mar 2001 May +22%
2001 May 2001 Sep -28%
2001 Sept 2002 Jan +24%
2002 Jan 2002 Aug -34%

2008 GFC

2007 Oct 2008 Mar -20%
2008 Mar 2008 May +15%
2008 May 2008 Dec -44%
2008 Dec 2009 Jan +18%
2009 Jan 2009 Mar -28%

2020 CV bear market

2020 Feb 2020 Mar -35%
2020 Mar 2020 Mar +20.5% (so far)

average next down leg (-28+-44)/2 = -36%

2756 x .64 = 1763 downside target


Sorry this should have been posted in the S&P 500

Did any of you good people monitor / watch the US markets near the close last night (just after 20:45 I believe?) there was a mad downward spike, it wiped up any desire for the bulls to take back some control.

it was a hell of a sight (Like LFC beating Barca - that one is for TF! )

chart attached to show the moment (and it was a moment!) that I'm refering to in the 5min Dow.

Remo,

Many thanks for clarifying. It really helps with analysing it all.

I would usually wait for the 1-2-3 target to hit, before exiting the trade, but I see you use multiple time frames. Interesting.

I suppose it helps that you know what wave we are in. I looked at that once.

Many thanks for all your help, it is much appreciated.

Now I’ve gone long on the Dow....
As you can see I’m always willing to change direction pretty quickly...
But there is a head and shoulders formation on the hourly so keep an eye on that....If it drops below 22350 then I’d go short again...

I use hourly charts a lot for bigger direction, and use 5 and 1 minute charts for earlier entry...

Overall I’m still expecting the indexes to go lower in the medium term...But look to the charts for clearer direction

"there's a hundred different ways to win a football game" quote from Jurgen Klopp....(lifelong Liverpool fan here)

well there's a hundred different ways to analyse these markets as well!
They could all be right.... and they could all be wrong...
Its what make a unique and dynamic market place...
for me i was watching the weekly chart...

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...zp65hI+x+bkA47oryD8=
i was watching the 200 day sma as well as the 200 day ema line on the weekly....
had feeling it was going to test that level.... very often a bearish index or stock turns just short of key retest level...so i caught it as it was falling.....only to see it rally back....but then it got smashed into the close.....

if we are talking about retesting.... how about a retest of the falling t/line on the broadening triangle then?
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...yCLj4JHfVrbcA3W9c%3D

good luck all....and keep banking those coins everyone...but most importantly stay safe and healthy during these testing times..
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

longterm_view wrote:
Hi long term,
Yes, but I watch closely before entering....also it was after the third wave move down that I new it was likely to be the next up wave back up....
I’m now short on the Dow....lol...seen how the markets were turning down fast....

This entry was also based on a potential 123 high n the hourly...

Dow more or less opened at the gap and just declined from there. This coincided with FTSE 123 low resistance at 5780 ish today.

Watch out for the gaps, fibs and trendlines

Good call trendfriend.

I think Jerome's gonna need a bigger bazooka

remo wrote:
Remo, many thanks for the charts and info.

I understand why you took the 1-2-3 low trade, on the daily basis.

Did you take the first trade,(based on your chart above) on the hourly? Was it a breakout of the consolidation? As attached chart?

Many thanks in advance.

Paitech wrote:
didn't i say I must have misread it.


anyway, the markets are pulling back.

Fear and Fomo bring out the same emotions in people.....i think we are seeing both of those in these markets!

The expectations of the market and the reality is way apart imvho....

Does look like the p/b has started....grabbed a short....lets see...
Looks like a race to the exits....and this should close down now imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Libero wrote:
Libero, if you read it, TF was surprised why the air lines were up.
Debt is a problem, but today the survival was more important, and hence easyjet up.
They would need to survive first and debt can be dealt with later on....

Paitech wrote:
Excuse me Paitech, I must have misread it...

The Dow thread, the markets, easyjet rising amongst others.... I figured you meant the markets are up because of easyjet

Anyway, I get what you mean - they've been given a life-line. Still, my position on DEBT stands.

Debt will weigh heavily once the eurphoria passes.

Libero, its about Easyjet. I read without that money, by june it would have been close the shop...
so eventhough its debt, that lets it carry on more....
Most business runs on Debt, not on full cash....

The Dow is very close to exiting bear market territory remarkably. 23640 is the target.

Trendfriend wrote:
Yep, I hear you loud and clear Trendfriend. I shorted both the FTSE and SPX (see entries in each respective threads, but I'm not hanging around - lots of retail investors missed the rally yesterday want to hold the bag today it seems).

Stay Safe!

Paitech wrote:
Not sure that's the reason the markets are flying - or why Easyjet is performing.

The money EasyJet have secured isn't revenue or profit or a lottery win. It's DEBT.

Debt either has to be paid back, defaulted on, or issued against bonds or equities - Any of these will have an adverse effect on the SharePrice.

For now, the market is euphoric so, they'll ride the ride - I'd say be cautious. and remember that old quote "It's the hope that kills ya".

This is the reason....

Easyjet confirmed last night that it had secured a £600 million loan from the Covid Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF), issued by HM Treasury and the Bank of England.

In addition the carrier has drawn down $500 million (£407 million) from its Revolving Credit Facility, raising cash reserves to around £2.3 billion.

The news came on the same day that Easyjet’s founder and largest shareholder Stelios Haji-Ioannou again called for the carrier’s £4.5 billion contract with Airbus to be cancelled, warning that failure to do so could see the airline run out of money “around August 2020, perhaps even earlier”.

Well this is almost bordering on insanity imvho...
Airlines whose planes are all grounded are up 25% today based on what exactly?

i'm so tempted here to short the dow....so i dusted the ig markets account down and put a couple of orders in put in with tight stops....
23811 with 150 pips stop

if that fails to hold then 24291 again with a 150 pip stop...

i'm also looking to short bp and ezj....and one or two others...
so lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

Great post Jackozy (we've missed you man, it has been ages!)

the 25,240 on the dow looks very ominous; but we're talking about another 2000 point move before retracement; that's a hell of a bid bet for the markets to be making at a time where massive challenges are ahead.

As expected, the downtrend breakout came:


We must remember that really fast moves have no stability so counter moves will usually also be fast/strong.

Will be interesting to see what happens around the 25240 61.8% Fib level. Like FTSE, there's also a gap near this Fib.

Great Post (as usual Remo).

The markets are all about pain - and I gotta say (like yourself and any other trader), I've taken some pain. I had to!

Anyway, risky trade - but the lines are holding well (range bound) for quick scalps on the five mins.

I'm probably going to save the "proper" shorts for the FTSE and SPX, but will scalp the Dow every now and then (looking after the pennies).

There has been a 123 low on the Dow daily...
I’m currently long but it’s only for the short term as remember, bear markets last around 6-9 months minimum...and it’s no way over just yet....there is way to many bad news out there and America is in a bad place currently and very likely to fall once they realise how bad they are ...
Even if we have seen the worst of the virus in Europe it’s done the damage to the world economy so the effects will only be seen in the next few quarters so very doubtful that we have bottom just yet...
I’m currently long and will go short at the fibs...

Paitech it certainly seems like that way with some certain to bounce but stocks pulling away from the lows..
I too have been waiting for the Dow to touch circa 18000 before I dive in..

It may not happen?

However I think from an economic point of view the sh1t has yet to hit the fan..it may we’ll be another 4 to 8 weeks before lock downs are removed or loosened, and add it second wave of viruses, you looking at a fair bit of destruction, job losses around the world..

The 20% bounce in prices may we’ll still come down, at least I think and hope so..

Anybody else think Covid-19 was man made, an accident gone terribly wrong?

Stay safe,

According to me, the fear is getting lesser....and as I said before, most hit the lows ....
Missed BP in 220s,GEN,GKP all flying
I think banking share may give another closer to low chances....
Really short on funds and feeling gutted for lack of funding

I don’t know what will happen, what I do know, is today I have funds for shares, and they have gone sky high.

I was after some gems. (I did buy some long term shares, we call them that, after you buy them and they go down!!)

Sitting on my hands.

I hope Remo is right, otherwise

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...J7mDIgf+XSc4KQh73V8=

strong rally to start the week...
will the dow hold on to the gains this time?

all eyes on the 20 day ema line and the rsi...if both b/out and close above resistance then 24227 the 50 ema line may well be the target....

A lot of the the indicators are mixed....but above 22595 would be a higher high....and possibly a sign the the low is in!

Although this could still stay range bound below the 200 day ema line for some time....lets see...
still think it will fail here but wdik...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Horrible Jobs number (thoughts with familes accross the pond).

But the markets shrug it off (even though it's a sign of worse to come).



watching with care.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8bx+5HrXM5sT3X1GJlI=

you have this support from Dec 2018

dow - daily close up.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8CxLnPXryWQT5r6tCLM=

no real pattern or logic in these markets....when you thin its going down it goes up and vice versa...
does seem to be retesting key levels and then moving down....

so more of a controlled fall rather than the free fall we had in the first move down...
the rsi is bang on resistance if it doe so up today...and we could well get a decent rally...
it does look like it will gap down from the futures...how big will the gap be??

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Ive following the updates, like all on here very much appreciate the superior collective knowledge.
I’ve been trading the dow over the last week using the minute charts fairly successfully just using support and resistance lines to short and buy. Surprised myself with 7 out 7 trades.

Nothing off great value just fish and chips stakes.

I think the way it’s behaving has probably made it look simple for a novice.

The spike at close wasn’t expected as the market knew of trump’s tweet earlier in the day, so not too sure markets are attributing the rise to that.

Anyway hoping it hits bottom quite soon...

Stay safe

The trendline held nicely but I doubt it will again. I think we're still in correction mode in the downtrend. I can see this getting near the 25000 mark before the next phase down which (imho) will take a fair bit longer. Speculation of course.

Trendfriend wrote:
Got it!

You're a Legend TrendFriend!

(alas, I'm not brave or braver - in fact when it comes trading, I'm both reckless and feckless!)

Yeah i was talking about the rising trendline the one you drew right at the top...

yeah!...i'm as good Remo...but only in hindsight!

anyway...zooming out still on the 5 min chart....this has been in this triangle all of this week...

my chart will be very different to yours as its market hours only...

dow - 5 min.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...SpdRMb3dQt5x6b/ZiLE=

the direction of breakout from the triangle should see a strong move in that direction...
the numbers change every 5 mins...

good luck....your a lot braver than me...

atb
trendfriend

Cheers TF,

scalping was the order of the day, but even 5 minutes can last a life time sometimes!

If today's low goes (it could go tomorrow - friday remember? - no one likes to hold), then I'd expect crazy moves to 18000 or thereabout, but not before a lot of shorts get burnt.

quick question: which line do you mean when you said "the rising trend line"? the top one of the three?

Also, do note that right now, it's struggling to break through the bottom of the three fork-like trendlines.

Lastly, regarding your chart, how I'd love to short that move, but I can't - I just can't. That one I'll leave to Remo!

(and of course you're a very good trader! )

its been hitting that t/line and coming down....so for scalping that was the line to short off....in hindsight off course....
in hindsight i'm a very good trader btw

this is what i think form a 5 min chart on advfn....

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...LXFhjINY0UAIp6vidhI=

i'm usually totally wrong....so lets see...
i do think this will close down imvho...if the low for today goes...
if it does rally the rising t/line on your chart should be target...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

No worries



any good?

The 5 min chart you posted below....can you try to draw a trend line across the tops please.....
Seems like a rising trend line.....

Only if you have min....

I have a look later myself...

Atb
Trendfriend.

This is really tough to trade / scalp....

All that's happening during today's session is, frankly, semi-informed gambling.

I'm trying to ride up / ride down tiny moves (what I call fish n' chip money), but it still difficult.

the mish-mash of trendlines *seem* at least for now, hold in some way or another - until they get blasted through in either direction.

be safe people.

p.s. why are these damned black lines appearing? IG need to get their act together.

new chart attached....

Trendfriend wrote:
Very true.

What success I had this morning, is being cut to shreds as I dipped a toe in (again, couldn't stay on the sidelines as long as I would have liked, not with all the volatility - but how big do you have to move your stops. It's absurd).

Might take a short position, IF IF IF i see a direction (obviously, not looking to hold for any sustained period).

Impossible to trade atm...happy I’m side stepping these markets

This is just silly tbh...
It will eventually close down imvho.... once it wipes all the bears out!

Atb
Trendfriend.

As the saying goes, "don't fight the FED"

longterm_view wrote:
10million new jobless claims in two weeks, and the markets wiped out the negative reaction.

Surely, this pump is short-lived - not convinced by the violent direction - I think I'll stay on the sidelines (for the next hour at least!)

The dow dropped by 350 points.

AdeMcG wrote:
destroyed it - 350 points wiped out in minutes.

wait, we've been here before!

Jobless claims higher than expected...what has that done to the Futures ??

Cut and paste by Ryan Detrick, CMT. I found this interesting.

Just remember, the ‘73/‘74 bear saw a 20% bounce.

‘01/‘02 bear had 22%, 25%, 24% and 24% rallies before ultimately falling 51%.

And the ‘08/‘09 bear saw a 27% rally before falling 56%.

Jackozy wrote:
Careful as a mouse, me.

A nice little relief rally (started with that big ol' candle at 8:45pm last night - The Fed maybe? I know, i.e. fact, they have currency & bond traders, but not sure about equities?) also, no circuit breakers at the end of a session, so this could have been a work-around. In any case... nice rally to scalp (hit and run, hit and run).

I've been watching the 5 min futures chart on and off over the last few weeks. If you're looking to scalp, you can see that short term 5 min trendlines hold farily frequently in the direction of the hourly trend.

Horizontal breakouts are quite often successfully backtested too (again, in the direction of the short term trend).

Got to be careful though.

Trendfriend wrote:
20,980 (or thereabouts) - i.e. the 23.6% Fib did put up a good fight - but the selling is unrelenting.

I'm not sure anything other than sitting on my hands is the best option right now! can't risk short term trade up (short term technicals) or down (trend).