Isn't the US market closed today for Martin Luther King Day?

Hi Remo,

Are you short on this mate? If so good luck

Amo

I always use a 40 point stop when I trade the Dow . This is due to the crazy moves it's capable off.
If you use tighter stops on the Dow then you are likely to get taken out. I used to use 20 points a long time ago but it kept bailing me out then head in my direction .i find 40 points works best for my style of trading.
Everyones different.

Hi Remo, out of interest how come you've sent your stop to 40 points?

Im gonna short the dow at 13662 with a 40 point stop during todays market hours only.
Im surprised its getting this close to it today.
I wont attempt this trade tomorrow due to the close proximity to that area.

dyor

Hi wreckless eric

The short is only for today during market hours only.
with regards to shorting.
ill explain that latter when i get some time.
I use IGIndex (spread betting company to short with but there are many spread betting companies that do it.
just look up www.igindex.co.uk . It will explain about shorting on there website some where.
remo

Remo, what is the time scale on this downtrend for the DOW and how does one short, never done it yet? Being overseas I only use one online broker who will accept overseas residents, had to close down TDW (EU residents only) and Selftrade (UK residents only).

Remo said:-

"Ive also noticed recently that there seems to be a lot of false breakouts around with shares so wondering if we are near the top????

What ever happens i will be shorting the dow if it gets near 13662 with a 40 point stop. Personally im not expecting this to go to that level as im expecting the right shoulder of a bigger head and shoulders to form."

Published on January 16, 2013 (the latest French (anti-USA/UK) economic speculation of downturn in 2013 (March - June Quarter):-


www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-71-is-available-U...e-global_a13066.html

Nice S&P 500 chart, long article and only shows part of release, have to subscribe for rest.

If you look at the chart you can see how the short term trend line that was breached back in november 7th is now acting as resistance. The price is following that line
The dow looks like its losing its momentum and there is an obv divergence on this as well.
Ive also noticed recently that there seems to be a lot of false breakouts around with shares so wondering if we are near the top????
What ever happens i will be shorting the dow if it gets near 13662 with a 40 point stop. Personally im not expecting this to go to that level as im expecting the right shoulder of a bigger head and shoulders to form .
The key to beating the dow is not to trade it all the time. You should be patient with the dow and only really trade it of important levels . Patience is the key to this index. If you over trade this then it can wipe you out.
DYOR

there was a great level to go long on first attempt .
been busy so missed this trade
there will be others

Has played out to below 23.6 fib so far, will it go as far down as as the 38.2 fib and then continue upward????

DOW is now hanging around at the support point, could this be a 123 scenario





www.dropbox.com/s/wp2yw4y5qap4dnk/Dow%2015m%20123%207.1.13.gif

Views welcome
GL

my view is that it could still be forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top. The only time that view will change is if the dow can break above 13661.
Thats the level ill be shorting the dow with a 40 point stop as that area is quite important.Obviously on first attempt basis,but if it is a true head and shoulders then it should not really go that high .
For the short term if this finishes above 13366 then expect the recent highs to be tested.

so
up above 13366
down below 13100

No mate, the move was too quick and did not realise that it will move that quickly to form a double top !!!!
Remo/Diver what your views on the DOW following this big move.
Thank you.

Did you get back in mate?

Happy New Year
In excess of 400 points gain during recent 4 trading hours (since posted last chart, WOW). RSI divergence noted on 30 mins chart when hit 13360 area, sorry not by pc so cannot post chart.

GL

Ocean10 wrote:
Don't look now then

Happy New Year

Climbed 90 points since drew the chart (15 minutes ago) , wish I had taken a long. NM next year....

Is that a BULL Flag developing while Obama is making up is mind???????



Happy New Year

I believe a deal will be reached by the govt , and there will be a relief correction lol. Traders could think ok deal struck, but price is still high so let off some steam first before we try to do a higher high.

This could be one scenario.

Ocean10 wrote:

There seems to be some logic in this too..S&P seems to be in a trading range for the last 12 years or so

www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php

xmas rally scenerio finished on christmas day. we have had a nice rally this year which started on 16th nov and ended on 18th dec so not quite christmas day but a rally of 800 points is not bad.Its been like this most Christmases .
Santa has gone back to Lapland for preparation for next year.

Diver,
Suggested target of 12920 met , hopefully we'll head upward now.....

Remo,
I agree with your comments particular with the head and shoulder scenario.
I would like to propose an alternative view since the drop is heavily linked with news “fiscal cliff”. If Obama and crew come up with something during the weekend, DOW can bounce off the 61.8 fib !!!!!, an area of previous resistance may now become support. Who knows?????

dyor { I suppose I need to put that }



www.dropbox.com/s/zeunf4q051q58nt/DOW%20daily%2029.12.12.gif

this is starting to look bearish again.
It looks like it may be heading towards the main trend line.
If you look carefully you can see the right shoulder of a head and shoulders forming(the bigger one that i mentioned a while back).????
Ive got no positions on the dow currently as waiting patiently for a good entry .Ill go long on the first attempt of the major trendline.
The dow has also finished below the 200sma which also is bearish.
The way to trade this is by waiting for a 123 high or trade of the trend line.
so look to short once the dow pulls back up but wait for the signal of the 123 high.So you have to be patient.
Or go long on first attempt of major trend line during market hours only,again patients required.
If your trading the dow you have to trade it day by day so views will change constantly so please bear that in mind if your a day trader.


dyor

Diver
Thanks for sharing your view and for your comment, 14400 should read 13400. I wonder if there is a possility of DOW touching the 13400 area before going further south during the next couple of trading days.

Ocean,
The recent move up from 12472 is actually a simple ABC move and not an impulsive 5 way move as indicated on your chart.
We are currently experiencing a pull-back from that move, which I anticipate will make around 12920, before heading north once again, when I anticipate it will make it back into the magical realms of the 14,000's. Hopefully at least 14100. All IMHO of course and you are very ,much entitled to your view. Have a great time this holiday!

Hello everyone, hope you are all set for x-mas, is Santa going to bring the xmas rally next week??? may be 14400 !!!!

www.dropbox.com/lightbox/home?select=IND...60m%2021.12.2012.gif




Merry X-Mas everyone

Ooops! That didn't go well! I wonder whether that was the end of wave B up? Easy to count these waves both ways...

I've been looking for a way into the Dow and since it closed above the downtrend resistance I figured I'd go long on a backtest of the latest breakout point:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily19_12_12.gif

Not sure if this will work out or whether it'll backtest the previous downtrend before rising further...

It's the target I was referring to. It just so happens to be the dows all time high.
14200ish
Sorry for being so cryptic . Was seeing if anyone else saw the same thing.Its quite amazing how targets seems to be headed for known resistances most of the time.
Dyor

remo wrote:
It's the first wave of 5 up to 14000

Ok I have no idea.

Hi Remo

I was going to stick my neck out here but I am a bit stuck. I hope your are not going to say an emerging head and shoulders position! What I can see is that 13300 will be a strong level of support (if it ceases to be resistance). I anticipate you are probably talking about waves and the like which I haven't got to grips with yet.

Dejavu

does anyone see any thing interesting about the breakout and finish above the symmetrical triangle?????????what it could imply

im surprised that no ones mentioned this today.
This is currently broken above the short term down trend line and symmetrical triangle.
if this finishes above that line then this will head towards the recent highs at 13600.
As can be seen from the chart below the dow has had a nice Christmas rally. nearly 900 points up since the start of this rally.
The dow is my favourite index as technical are easy to read.



DYOR

hi Amo
Its just the way i do things on the dow.
It stems from my Elliott counts i do on the dow and the way i use the previous day high as a means to the next wave as such.
its just some thing ive noticed over a long term and its in no books as such so its really just my thing.
So it probably wont help you much in understanding what im saying.

Hi Remo,

From a technical perspective why is so significant to finish about yesterdays high even if the DOW closes up and above the 23.6fib? Sorry If my question is abit naive. Just trying to understand the important of closing above previous day highs.

Thanks
Amo

If the dow can finish above 13190 then id expect the dow to go towards the recent high again(13329).
It looks like the 23.6fib level held which is kinda bullish to me as that signals a strong trend is still in play.
So as long as we finish above 13190 today then id stay bullish. If it finishes below this level then look to 13000 for possible bounce next


DYOR

If this does finish below the trend line then look to enter long at 13000 as thats where the 38.2 fib level is.Its bang on that level.
Obviously im long currently but just pointing out a key level to you guys


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/dow13dec.png
DYOR

Ive gone long on this from the first touch of the trend line with a 40 point stop.
This could be a risky trade thou due to the previous candle. Im currently in profit but only just.This was a first touch basis trade.
If this does finish below the trend line then a bigger correction will follow. This may then test the 13000 level.




DYOR
remo

OK this is what I am seeing on DOW

clip2net.com/s/2BnpW

Plenty of support around the 13000 with fibs, resistance and support turn to resistance.
If looked at on the hourly even more support

RMc

yesterday i shorted the dow at this point,13290. Made a nice profit.
Today i wont be doing that as that level is getting weaker as its been tested a day latter.
When a level gets tested a few times then it normally weakens that level. Hence why i only ever attempt it on first touch basis.
dyor

Hi diver,

Yes, your count is certainly possible, as is the idea that the move down from 13663 to 12471 was a full ABC correction on its own and that we're now in a new uptrend (wave 3 of 1 of...?).

I note that since my bearish FTSE post this morning, its long term RSI seems now to be trying to breakout...

I don't have any index positions open at the minute - just waiting for a clear signal either way but I'm coming round to the bullish view!

Hi Jackozy,

I don't think this was a five way move as there was no divergence on the RSI to denote the fifth wave.

screencast.com/t/e6FSk9Eehwa

This may seem a little extreme but I reckon the DOW is headed for a test of support at 12020

It bounced exactly off the old uptrend support line at 13307. It's possible that the move down from 13662 was a 5 wave move and, if it does drop below 13011 from here then the move up from 12471 will look a lot like 3 waves.

In addition, 12471 was the 38.2% Fib of the move from 10404 to 13662 so a 5 wave move down to there followed by a 3 wave move up ought to be followed by a further 5 wave move down, possibly down to the 61.8% Fib of the 10404 to 13662 move at 11663. US fiscal cliff could make this speculation a reality perhaps?

Time will tell...

should be a free trade now.
Also if it heads towards 13290 again then dont try and short it again.
This only works on first attempt mainly.
dyor

here's an example... dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Dow_90_69Fibexample.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:

I tend to use 90% (assessment of lower highs)& 69% potential area to watch for out signs of reversals - all depends if these levels get taken out or not will give me further direction of the trend whether corrective or impulsive and also provides initial area's of previous breakout/breakdown / support/resistance

from the chart you can clearly see both the 90% & 69% of this current move up represent the price range when the move down started 90% and recommenced 69% to make nov 16 lows...

its just something I've noticed and use to observe pivotal area's in conjuction with the conventional fib levels. ......

regards WS

Whats with the 69% fib ?