Hi jona

Thats the fib projection on jackozy chart.
hope that answer the question ...
jonamacg83 wrote:

Thats the way i see it J one more up then larger degree correction to follow assuming those numbers mentioned in the last few posts hold up.......

Great chart and very insightful - the only question I have is why did you put the 100% mark where you have?

Never mind about the Fed and all that bluster! Technicals say it all and this was simply the top of the channel for both the Dow and S&P. In addition, the S&P hit it's 161.8% Fib extension at the same time. Here's the Dow daily:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily22_05_13.gif

I note that my channel support is some way from yours remo - I have 14888. The Dow exceeded its 161.8% extension of the 4/6/12 to 5/10/12 move.

Here's the S&P daily:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/S%26P500daily22_05_13.gif

Similar channel but this time the 161.8% extension of the same move as the Dow came into play so a double whammy of resistance.

There's a real possibility in my mind that this is the wave 4 belonging to the sequence up from 4 June 2012 lows. The only thing that's bothering me about that is that the move up from Nov lows appears to have 7 subwaves to it and there really should be 9 so there's a chance that this correction may not be too bad and there's a final wave up to follow before the larger degree wave 4 which would take a few months to play out.

If there is another move up to come then remo's trendline ought to hold. If not then the target retrace for the Dow would be close to the breakout point at 14200 (assuming a 38.2% Fib target). The same level for the S&P is 1557.

Just my view but in both cases there ought to be some more upside due at some point before the big crash down, perhaps next summer (ie after the 5 waves up from March 2009 lows).

Im planning on going long on a first attempt basis at 14929 for today. This level changes every day.
If the dow goes below 15265 today then this should head towards that trend line.(by looks of things its gonna open with a gap down today).
This is a trend line play and should only be done during market hours with a 40 point stop.
If that trend line fails to stop this correction then look for a deeper correction that may last a few months.
Below that trend line could open up low 14367(38.2 fib).
This could be the long awaited correction that ive mentioned a while back.Go away in May and come back in October senerio.

Dow Hit 156 ftse hit break out point.. ..

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may22v1.JPG

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testim...ernanke20130522a.htm

scale back or increase.... media playing to the sound of the music, market needed an excuse to sell off... moves were parabola on most indices...

long weekend comin up on both sides of the pond...

watch approx >377/88 > 401 (50%) >419 > 487> retest of highs, failure to exceed that and it starts to reverse down then supports 260> 237>158> ****5122/00***> 14900 > 14500 & ultimately a retest of dow breakout.

***v.imp

dow found decent support 260 / spx 1648 if that fails again then lower we go...

will pop an updated chart when i get a min...
cheers WS

The trend is still up - surely?

Ben's statement elevated the markets to new highs; The digestion of the news was interpreted as a negative, and yet, yet, yet, at no point did the Fed say anything about slowing or stopping. If anything, the Fed re-iterated that support will continue until the Unemployment rate drops to 6.5%.

In my humble view - minus chart - the market will continue upwards.

Comments from the Fed that they may start scaling back scale back bond purchases, perhaps as early as June.

Tom aka MD

A hint of ending QE

Any ideas what just happened to cause a 250 point drop over the last few hours?

Shooting star?

inside bar formed on 5mins... needs to get over 419 to for any chance of retest of todays highs.WaveSurfer wrote:

Parabola, keep saying it .....

extended channel hit... whats' next... looks like it want go higher.... break below lower channel then down it goes

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may21v1.JPG

From the daily chart it seems that the DOW has been moving up within a channel since mid Nov 2012.

About a month ago I noted a hammer/long lower shadow candlestick pattern on the daily candle (www.stocktradingfundamentals.com ... k_patterns) after a bit of pull. The DOW has since moved more than 800 points. Today there is a long upper shadow considered as a bearish signal, will that hold true????



www.dropbox.com/s/wfa6d5ujne3qk4h/DOW%20D%2020.05.12.png

dow updated Channel

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may17v1.JPG

A few hours to go but if this finish's down will that be a shooting star at the top of the channel?

some charts to explain earlier comment....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may15v1.JPG
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_5min_15may.JPG
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_1min15may.JPG













rgds WS

if it goes back abv 274 area then up it goes, quick scalp playsWaveSurfer wrote:

hit the top of the channel and some more... also doji on 1 min and H&S, also inside bar 5 min.

dyor

DOW looking a bit toppy. Like it has for about 3 months!

When the Dow moves it sure can keep going. When this makes new highs it could keep going and shorting this is pretty much crazy.
Trying to second guess the top is really hard. I'm just waiting for a clear signal to trade the Dow . This index is good to trade as long as your patient
I love this index

updated....what a market

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may14v1.JPG



WaveSurfer wrote:

Here that channel view again.... what the fork !

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may14.JPG

dow 1 min chart - spx hit 1635 - see further commentry on ftse thread....

Debt ceiling seems to have slipped under the rador. This article seems to suggest there may not be an impact until the autumn.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/09/...xpayer-national-debt

Here is the updated 4 hr chart, played out perfect - 1st cnh target hit and note how it respected the channels - holding it and breaking out of the median line and testing the upper mid channel of ~14100, i expect dow to pullback to retest break area ( grey lines / nr median line) and go on to re-test the recent high and go higher....

all imo - dyr

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_06May_4hr.JPG

dow = 15100 approx .162ext of int i

1614/15 = approx dow 15000

spx 1614 key area break n close next stop upto 1625. if bust thorugh 25 then omg 1668 next up

1614 few fibbo's there.....

1 hour view... spot a few things...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_02%20may.JPG

These channels be important now....break up...then higher c in play, break down then lower c range in playWaveSurfer wrote:

tested the break out point and held on 1st touch ala inv h&S neckline / cup n handle rim, took it down close to the 50% lower fork ? will hold and break abv....60/65.....

nice bounce either way tho

This is producing a few doji.
For dow to go higher it must breakout above 14768 then look to take the high out soon after.Otherwise a risk of having a lower high.
Im looking to short this below a finish at 14665. This would suggest a move back down towards 14440 area.
So the levels to watch today are..
up above 14768
down below 14665



see how the trend line is now acting as resistance

I remember the drop on wall street when the twin towers were attacked. My US shares dropped a third very much of a reality. Took a year or so to recover their value.

Reports of explosions at the white house and Obama being injured...

That would definitely do it!

www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-23/dow-jo...ap-twitter-page.html

That drop was a bit crazy!!

The bulls are fighting back. The hammer gave an indication .


The hourly chart gave a 123 low signal earlier today.


Im planning on going short on a first attempt basis at 14762 with a 40 point stop only for today. you can see on the hourly chart the reason for this..Theres 2 levels of resistance converging, one from the trend line and the other from horizontal resistance. This is a day trade

J - as you mentioned the spx - path is getting clearer on indices and going to plan

A = 1597 - 1536 - complete
B = 1536 - ??? (in progress) .618 @ 1575
C = A @ 1574 - 1513 - to follow

all imho

good to see you back J - hope you had a nice break

B wave rally.

Some very interesting features have played out on the Dow daily chart (sorry, I've missed all the discussion so apologies if this has already been noted). Here's my daily chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily19_04_13.gif

As we can see, the price has dropped out of its uptrend from 31 Dec but the RSI has dropped out of its uptrend from the Nov low and backtested it perfectly. Is this a sign of things to come? We can also see that price formed a hammer on Friday at the first support (there is a bullish RSI div on the hourly too) so a bounce may be in the offing for now and that could provide remo's trendline backtest at c. 14655.

The Dow 1 minute P&F chart has an active target at 14655 which supports this view.

It gets even more interesting when we look at the S&P. Here's the daily chart on that:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/S%26P500daily19_04_13.gif

Here we see that price has already hit the trendline from the Nov low (also at the 23.6% Fib - note the RSI breakdown too) and that may have carried the Dow through to its Friday hammer. However, this has yet to backtest the Dec trendline.

Some good learning material on these indices at the moment.

CT79 wrote:

Ive already gone short during the day.
It is a 123 high breakout but i prefer them after a few days worth of candles .Which shows the low more clearly followed by the breakout. The one we have had is still good but i like the clear ones ,just a personal preference.
Some people may not see this one so clearly
True test of this down move comes if it can go past the 23.6 fib level(14317). Strong up trends tend to only correct to this level so one to watch.Since we have had a break of the short term trend line this should move away from this level if its a true break.
For the bulls to have a chance this needs to finish above 14650

so up above 14650....(a finish above this level would be bullish short term)
below this level this should go down.



If your not already in this then stand a side as you have missed the best trades already.
Wait for a clearer entry. Another good entry would be a back test of the trend line (14640).Obviously short there with a tight stop.

Working to plan so far and looking good, enjoying this education from Remo!!

Remo, I assume you adding to your short will be at the back test of the 123 breakout at around 14537?

Short term trendline break and 123 high? Where next I wonder

Rossymc wrote:
Hi ross
I learnt the hard way
Thanks mate for your kind words.
As long as you respect this index then its beatable.If you over trade this then its a painful lesson. Been there
Key to the dow is patience and wait for the perfect entry. Some times means weeks with out a trade.

Remo

After following your trades on the DOW for sometime i can honestly say that you are a class act in trading it.

Patience respect and strategy is a great recipe for the daddy.

Thanks for the lessons RMc

CT79 wrote:
Hi CT79
My first target was the trend line(short term) This already bounced today from there.If this can finish below that then it would open up lower prices.Id then look at 14383 followed by 14000.
Its a free bet for me now and i will look to add to the short if the trend line breaks.
The Marubozu played out perfectly on the dow. This pattern is one of my favorite candlestick patterns. They don't appear that often hence the importance.When ever i see this on the indexs i always trade them just like the way i said.Only thing with this pattern is a lot of people read it wrong.
As can be seen from my trade there was no hindsight involved
Please also remember that im a short term trader..

This bounced perfectly of the trend line

Hi Remo,

may I ask what targets you have for your trade?

Thanks
CT79

Free trade now

Potential 123 high on close