Worth a long at the short term up trend line on a first attempt basis.(14989) with a 40 point stop during market hours only.This could be a good level for a bounce tomorrow??



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow30thsept.png

rumors of the END of QE might help that short too


ooops...forgot link:

www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/17/us-us...dUSBRE98G18K20130917

Im gonna be shorting the dow at 15658 with a 40 points stop for today only.
This trade will be placed until 8.30pm UK time. This is a first attempt trade only.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow17thsept.png

Hold the press, here's why:

Jeez! I guess the markets can't stand him (with good reason one supposes!)

remo wrote:
Came back a few mins ago, logged on, and thought my eyes were deceiving me!

Dow futures up 185 as I type, and the FTSE isn't bad either with its futures up around 77 points.



Any idea why?

I'm guessing weak USD is driving a mini-rotation. Happy to be corrected.

It looks like all the indexes are gonna open up massively tomorrow.
Hopefully a nice bullish week ahead

Jackozy wrote:

I hope he gets better soon. our son never got ill. Until he went to nursery .Then it was one illness after the other. Nursery are full of germs ..it took him a while to build his immune system up . I know how you feel. We went through a lot of calpol. It will get better mate .

I still think there's every chance the trade could work - 15340 is a key level, 315 is the 61 Fib and the trendline backtest:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily11_09_13.png

What I meant by overbought is that the daily stoch is at 97.3 which is as high as it's been since 2009 (I know it can stay up there) and, more importantly, while the RSI is not that high, it is at the downtrend resistance from the initial bearish divergence.

We'll see. It's a very strong market so it is risky to short it.

Cheers.

PS My little one's managed to get ill again on his return to nursery after only 2 days so I'm back on full time childcare duties for the next week or two at least so I'll have to remain on the back seat for now. Thanks for all your hard work.

Jackozy wrote:
Yep ...I dont place any trades on the dow in the last 30 mins of trading. On top of that the dow hit 15305 and then went down then went back up to 15305 and went down so that already means the level was getting weaker.So my order was only open till 8.30uk time so was lucky in that respect. 5 point out on the dow is like the level being hit .Back on the side lines waiting for that perfect trade again on the dow.

I wont say the dows over bought just yet as the dow has been in a sideways market since may and if you look at the rsi its still not that high yet.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow11thsept1.png

Is that 3 white solders???

I'm assuming you cancelled that trade remo, given that it got there so close to end of day?

Dow is massively overbought but they still keep buying it. Crazy market!!

Thanks remo. I thought one or two of them were quite large @ c. 60-80 pts...anyway, I don't think they all got filled during market hours and was wondering if there's a 3 bearish gaps up pattern forming at the 61 fib today.

Jackozy wrote:
fractional gap up...very slightly....each day..

Makes sense to me remo - stops above 340 as that's a strong area too.

Does anyone know if the Dow has gapped up each day for the last 3 days including today? TIA

Im gonna be shorting the dow when it hits 15310 .This is the level for today only.
Thats where the trend line back test will be for today.This level is also the 61.8 fib level from the high to the recent low so should be resistance as well. So theres 2 levels of resistance close together so worth a short on first attempt with a 40 point stop during market hours only.
The key to beating the dow is patients and NOT over trading. Its best to wait for key levels when trading the dow as its not a forgiving index if your day trading.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow11thsept.png

probably will add more volatility with more financials co's...Libero wrote:

Folks,

This isn't a technical post, but it might have a bearing on technicals perhaps?

With Alcoa Out, Dow Gets a New Earnings Pacesetter

Alcoa is one of the ones heading out, and Visa and Nike (both terrific performers, especially when compared to Alcoa! are some of those coming in)

Not sure about about the adjustments and price weighing, but should be interesting!

(It proves by design, that these indicies are 'made' to rise over time, with the constant elimnation of the weak - the FTSE is another if you look at the stocks that comprised the UK index say, 10, 20 years ago).

I have taken some profit on FTSE today
SL for the rest moved to below 6546. Its a free trade now

123 low breakout on DOW last night

1 = 14762
2 = 14940
3 = 14775



123 low breakout on FTSE if we close above 6530 today
I am long on FTSE, SL is below 6421

Ive got my order to short on the dow at 14931 with a 25 point stop.
This looks to me to be the top of the trading range based on the hourly charts.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thsept.png

if it does breakout then likely to go higher so hence the tight stop.

Im looking to go long on a first attempt basis only on the dow at 14673 for today. This level changes daily.
This obviously has risk attached due to the Syria crisis but on a technical note worth the long on a first attempt basis during market hours. I always use 40 points stop

worth a long on first attempt at 14664 for today only with a 40 points stop.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow28thaug.png

Im looking to go long on first attempt of the trend line at 14650 on a first attempt basis with a 40 point stop during market hours only. This level changes daily.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow21staug.png

Are we going to see a bit of upside now????



www.dropbox.com/s/zcnl4ek6pksao4k/DOW%20Daily%2021.08.2013.png

MRA4 wrote:
Spot on MRA4
The only concern I'd have is the fact that it finished right near the trend line.That opens up the possibility of a breakout?
Normally prices would bounce off hard if the trend line was to have a impact on first attempt. This did bounce of it during the day but latter re-testing it. So best just stay on the side line to see what happens over the next few sessions relating to the Dow.

I see on the daily chart that the Dow is Currently sitting on the trend line & ichimoku cloud support

rt1.e.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/dis...ib47xqnc227&type=png

Hi Folks it's been while since i posted on dow thread, most updates i have given via the chat facility...

here is the updated chart and the current count i have for the DOW.

Major 4 has begun and it will be complex in nature. expecting Dow over the course of the next 3 weeks or so to hit the region of around 14300/600. we see nearer the time for more accurate area's.

current move i have is a minor A of Int A of Major 4, possibly completed yesterday, it also put in +div.

may see a possible minor B wave rally on the cards, short into strength imo.

Long Term count Major 4 of Primary wave III




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/DOW_1hr_wavev3.JPG

regards WS.

this broke out but since have fallen ...was a free trade thou so should not have lost...
but there could be another day trade for a first attempt coming
Ive got my long ready to activate at 15513 with a 25 point stop.
this is a short term trend line bounce play on a first attempt basis.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow31stjulyintra.png

The level to watch today is 15606 as a break above this could send this flying.
If you look at the chart you can see the dow going sideways with a lot of indecision.
Sideways move is needed to build strength to go higher.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow31stjuly.png

Hi WS,

Can I ask, i'm confused by this count, as we go from one kind of count (subwave or 2 degree's down from your primary wave) into one degree of wave up if you get me - like you jump from i,ii,iii to 1,2,3 in the next wave - but I thought i,ii,iii,iv,v makes a 1 - then wave 3 is made up of another set of i,ii,iii,iv,v.

Then a full set of 1,2,3,4,5 makes a Cycle wave I and so on?

WaveSurfer wrote:

J - back in side the fork again lol.

Up to 542/557 level before a test of the 340/8 breakout and doji top now?

---

looks good imo..




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_July11.JPG

Good old Boom Boom Ben - he must have seen the continuation dojis on FTSE, Dow and S&P before deciding what to say - it fitted the tea leaves perfectly!

Up to 542/557 level before a test of the 340/8 breakout and doji top now?

GC - as discussed on chat - here you go high level waves.....NO OVERLAP.

the Power of 3

current count Minor 3 of intV of Major 3 of PIII





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_weekly_waves.JPG

rgds WS

Ok, please bear with me on this on, and be gentle.

For the last 2 nights I have been busting my balls with possible EWT counts for the DOW.

I had one last night that looked valid to me, however, in hindsight, I wasn't thinking about moves within moves, or primary/Cycle moves more to the point.

I was directed to go look again and come up with alternative counts. I frustrated myself because I couldn't look past my own bias - but I came in fresh tonight and had a look again. This is what I came up with.

If I am right, I believe we are currently in a sub wave 5 of a primary wave 3 - to be even more specific, I think we are in a minor wave 3 of a subwave 5 of a primary wave 3 if I understand it the way i think I do at the moment. You can see the minor wave on the Daily chart.

Now I know I could be wrong with the titles of primary/subwave/minor wave - but try to bear with me and understand the point im making is relevant. But if you can tell me the real titles, that would be great.

The only rules I use when looking at EWT are the 3 hard rules, being:

1.Wave 2 must not retrace more than 100% of wave 1

2.Wave 3 must not be the shortest wave

3.Wave 4 must not enter the zone of wave 1





Anyway, thought I would share here and see if I am on the right track. Looking at it, I feel confident it all fits - but as always, would love some feedback.

If it is indeed a correct count, I am honestly starting to see the power of EWT. Especially in moves that may seem frustrating to an inexperienced trader - having a look at the bigger picture, before scaling down can really really help to understand price action.

Sorry, this text missed off last post.....


I'm not sure this has retraced fully as it didn't quite reach 38.2 fib at 14,527. The target should be 50%. There is a chance this will retrace from the trendline, circa 15,190 - 15,200 and drop back to 14,200ish. Action at the trend will be defining...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DJ%20INDUSTRIAL%20AVG.png

An alternate ....

Just a word of warning.. Not saying this will happen. Hope it bursts thru 15,200 without stopping

early stage of minor wave 3 on intV of major 3......so plenty of upside to go imo.

update chart.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_1hrWaves_6July.JPG
WaveSurfer wrote:

This should be a free trade now...

PS Look for futures to come to c. 15033-54 and bounce before US open on Monday.

Cheers mate, was getting confused trying to work out which one it could be. I also used one of your blog charts (with fibs) to work out an initial target of 15562. I think I may have got ahead of myself with this one though and gone off the mark.

and close the gap to boot. big up !

Today's drop to 14967 was wave 2 of 3 up from 14550 imho. 14967 was the 61.8% Fib of the rise from 14820 to 15185 (futures prices) which I have as wave 1 of 3 (of 5).

Amo - I think you're right except it should probably be Major 5 not Primary as I think we're in Primary 3.

I've just done a little study of the dow and came to the conclusion that this move up is minor wave 3 of intermediate (3)of Primary ((5))

I tried lol

Im long on the dow with a 40 point stop from here...


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow5thjuly.png

Dow above the 15083 - will it close above?
lets see!!

personal view point is dow has made an intwave 4 bottom and now intV of Major 3 of Primary 3 in progress.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_1hrWaves_4July.JPG





Rgds WS
WaveSurfer wrote:

Yes - Very useful as always.
Yes I do remember 2009 and the days of XTA charts where you helped me to make my first sensible trades, and where virtually every day felt like an up day in the Aim Market (GKP/XEL etc..)- those days seem long gone and I am surprised how much the DOW has rallied whilst the Miners and Oil minnows have yet to follow ...
Many Thanks

SE

Syrian Empire wrote:
Hi syrian

its a tricky one this.
were still in the uptrend as such as the main trend line is far away. Near 13000 points ..so any move down will just be a correction for the time being. Im more of a short term trader so i look at the dow from day to day and not from a long term perspective. So with regards to pensions im the last person to talk to about that. Bull markets generally last around 4-5 years and right now its been 4 years since the start of this bull market. I dont know if you remember but i called the bottom in march 2009 over on iii when chartsview was just a private board The days when i used to try and help people learn elliott waves.I dont teach my method of elliotts anymore as it drove me mad trying to explain things over and over and in the end it even confused me with all the counts.short term,long term .The labeling of elliotts can be very confusing and its beyond chartsview really to teach. .
Time has flown since those days. Everyone was doom and gloom at that point. right now there is no extreme feelings out there so doubtful that were at the top. I still think the dow primary target is going to be in the 17000 region and thats where this bull market may top out. Possibly another 1-3 years??? who knows ...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowbullmarket.png

I dont remember a time when the markets have done so well during a down turn. All the quantitive easing has made things more un predictable . What happens when the world starts to recover properly??? So reading the markets using general economics may not be so straight forward as in the past. Thats generally my feeling.
Like i said im more of a short term trader.

short term..
if the dow finishes above 15083 then a possible 123 low formation again. The last one failed.
if it does break out above 15083 i suspect its going to be a quick move. This should then head towards the down trend line on my chart at 15270 ish area. where it will stop and hesitate This is the area that it has to break above to signal new highs may be near.Once that trend line gets taken out then this should make new highs again.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thjuly.png

so take the above with a pinch of salt.
Now i can stop my ramblings
hope the above was of some use

Hi Remo - Where are we up to with the DOW? Low volatility and drifting? there was talk of a dip to 14300 area - is this still an option?

Currently have my pension sat in cash and looking for an entry point to coincide with DOW low.

Thanks

SE

look above just click on the live chat...

there is a chat room in here?
:/