OK it's not T.A but alot of holders have been waiting for this. MOL Results -
HERE WE GO!

molgroup.info/images/qt/2014_Q3_Flash_Report_ENG_FINAL.pdf

"This was a strong quarter for MOL with lots of good news. As forecasted, Upstream production reverted to growth and we see significant upside potential in the coming quarters as well. A major breakthrough supporting this assumption is the official approval of the Akr-Bijeel Block Field Development Plan. As far as Downstream is concerned, I’m glad to say that MOL achieved ONE OF IT'S BEST EVER QUARTERLY RESULTS" This is not only the reflection of a seasonally better environment but also clearly demonstrates our successes in continuous efficiency improvements."

In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq:
In the Akri-Bijeel block the accelerated drilling program me continued with 4 drilling rigs and 1workover rig.
(1) A key milestone has been passed as the Field Development Plan (FDP) was officially approved by the ManCom and signed by the Minister of Natural Resources, allowing 2P reserves to be booked for 2014.
(2) Around the Bijell discovery Bijell-2 and Bijell-6 wells achieved total depth(B-2 TD 5,423m Triassic, andB-6TD4,300m Jurassic). The well test program me commenced and initial test results are promising, the latterwill be finished through the year. - end.

The Triassic zone
will be tested at Bijell - 2 with further upside potential. Testing of Bijell - 4 is expected to start in Q4.
Tie-in of aforementioned wells to Bijell-1 ExtendedWell Test (EWT) facility and Bijell-
4 Early Production Facility (EPF) is expected during Q1 and Q2 2015.
(3) The first appraisal well around the Bakrman discovery (Bakrman-2) was spudded in April and reached 4,000m in the middle of October. The drilling is planned to be finished in Q4 while the test program will start with the same rig thereafter. It is alsoexpected to be tied in to a EWT facility in H1 2015 and the initial works started for the related rental facility.
(4) Production from the Bijell - 1 EWT facility is due to start with 2,300 mboepd. Debottleneckingis under way to mitigate a possible higher gas-to-oil ratio,in addition,afterthe tie in of aforementioned wells a block production of 10 mboepd is targeted in the short term and increase further the production in line with the FDP during 2015.

In Shaikan block gross production volume is above 23 mboepd inthe two installed facilities. Domestic
revenues are realized on a monthly basis.
Export revenues are paid periodically; the outstanding receivables are reported to MNR. Gross production is expected to be at around 40 mboepd by the end of 2014 after the expected tie-in of the SH-7,-8,-10 wells. SH-11 will be drilled in H1 2015.

...Anyway, I think it's gonna be a tease. I am tired, and as this is such a bugga - I have a feeling this will close on the 12th at 71.5p right on fib and descending resistance. No clues given! Ha,ha. I'm not looking at lower lows until after I see what happens on the 13th, and tomorrow with MOL 'cos if this pops it's gonna go crazy imo. Thought: Unless it pops before and comes down for backtest on 13th - hmmm, lots to think about.....



I think MOL interim's tomorrow will give a clue and, I'll look at downward projection then if its not good - as for now it looks bullish. There is clear divergence on chaos oscillator which helps define wave counts too and picking each wave out, 3 being significant. Also the beginning of bullish crossover of 12 day exponential m.a. and 34 day tunnel for me is very promising. I just have a feeling crunch time is gonna come and this is on a coiled spring. I could be completely wrong but it seems to me a perfect storm is brewing. If the 13th is a bloodbath, I will adjust targets accordingly and they won't be pretty.



Divergence on weekly too, plus above 12 day exponential m.a. too.




Not much more to add as I'm tired and am thinking only one way right now, maybe better with a fresh head. LOL!

Hi Diver,

Snap with the upward extension fibs - I've only got end of day for pro realtime and did this before closing candle appeared (takes 20 mins after the bell) - just having a proper look now. Been out with the kids for bonfire night.


screencast.com/t/BWMbvWGYotD

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKPhourly.png
This 1H chart completed a 3-way move from the low at 42.50 to 75.60 and then retraced 50% to 58.50. It is now pushing toward the 68.10 level, which it needs to break to continue the upward move started this morning and is illustrated by the green percentages.
The alternate is a breach of 58.50 and a move lower illustrated by the red percentages.
Personally I favour the green route due to strength of the RSI, but that is quite tenuous and tomorrows trading will tell all.

F4T "but it could bounce a little when it meets the rising short term trendline (red). The 50% retracement point is at 59/60."

Bloody good call again mate. I thought exactly the same as not only 50% fib but also bottom of the 34 day tunnel on my chart set up, add that with the trendline you had from bottom spike and closes = 3 reasons for bounce for me.

This is getting interesting now...hmmm! Post a chart later.

GLA

54p, should be good support here, if it gets there.
I think its the best place to go long, as two supports at 54p.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...wo%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

Regards,
Trendfriend.

That's still an exceptional return Richard. Well done yourself.

Very well done with the trade F4T.

I got cold feet around the mid 50s after entering low 40s.

I wish I had been more patient. Hopefully another opportunity to come.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...oQ%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Hi All,

Great run up from 42/43 but it was an easy exit for me at 73.75 last week (one of the breakpoints on the fall).The extended run in such a short time and touching RSI resistance was more than enough. The loss of volume following the spike confirmed.

The rise didn't make 77.50 let alone the long term downtrend line (currently ~88). I expect this to drift downwards until we find out how much hot air is circling.

We should see the mid 50's at minimum in the near future IMO (66.8% fib) but it could bounce a little when it meets the rising short term trendline (red). The 50% retracement point is at 59/60.

I'll wait for 50p and see if we get there again. If we do i'll probably wait further ;o). It's all about patience with GKP, always has been.

GL
F4T

Edit:
Just read Koolkeith's note after posting.
I note now the shadow downtrend line as resistance to the rise (I use closing); this does make things a little more interesting. There have clearly been alot of bets placed on 13th Nov.

Perhaps we have just formed the "2" in a 1, 2, 3 low type breakout?
Looking to enter on the retest "3"

Hi Count,

Gotta agree that until that descending resistance of over 2 years is broken, this is technically still in a downtrend. As you say it came very close to a breakout - I'd personally like to see a break of that resistance followed by a break of previous high of 89.75p for a comfortable call of change in trend, but that's a big rise to miss out on. I guess the safest strategy would be to buy the inevitable backtest after a break of descending resistance if it happened, with a tight stop to avoid any fakeouts. What is encouraging from my chart set up is the fact this has had three closes above the 12day exponential average on the daily and is also sat above the various exponential 34 day moving averages which is set on opens and closes and median to create a 'tunnel'. From experience with this set up, when the blue 12 day crosses through the 34 day tunnel - we could see a powerful move up. It is soooo nearly ready to do so, but not guaranteed. If it does I'd expect to see it move up to the 80's but it's a questionable 'if' at the moment. I won't mention the forming of a potential inverse head and shoulders this time - too early

Daily:



clearer with link: screencast.com/t/TE5JAvcv

Weekly:



clearer with link: screencast.com/t/01a0SelF

Food for thought - What's your thoughts on this as you have been spot on.

Thanks in advance and good luck all.

Hi Orsotoro,
No long term downtrend line from 465 wasn't broken yet but came close on 30 Oct with high of 76 imo. So we are still in downtrend.
I'd wait for F4T's update, he is usually spot on with his TA.
ATB

Totally see what you are saying Count, but was the downtrend broken by that first rise, in your opinion ?

Hi orsotoro, another interpretation is that we already just witnessed the 123 low complete.
Starting with the bottom 42.25, we have 1 = 57.75, 2 = 49.10.
screencast.com/t/N2T6AZY7jE

The set-up looks like this to me:

Low of 42.25, breakout of downtrend Wednesday with 64p finish, and then rise to point 1 at 76p yesterday. Now awaiting another low, obviously above 42.25, to confirm point 2. The buy-in point 3 will then be a break above 76p.

You may be right F4T you usually are but a new bit of news came in this morning stating the approval of the FDP for Akri-Bijeel field run by MOL that can also be seen as positive. So might run on to the 80's but will keep close eye.
As Jackozy once interestingly stated, its surprising how often facts seem to eventually follow the TA predictions and thus belatedly justify the rise.

Will post a chart with my thoughts over the weekend as busy this week.

That's enough for me. 73.75 is the next resistance after 61. Nice run but I expect a retrace. Fast rise often leads to a fast fall.
GL all
F4T

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ug%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

If this can close above the 50 day ema @ 66p, it should go on to at least test the main trendline @ around 83p imho

Regards,
Trendfriend.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKP%281H%29.png

So many false dawns eh Lib. So, is this desperation on the part of private investors, or is someone 'on the inside' buying from a position of knowledge? Only time will tell I guess...

From a charting viewpoint, the RSI is certainly very strong at 79. The move up from 42.25 is now at 100%, having almost touched 127.20%, on the fib extension. If this is serious I feel it should exceed 161.80% and form a five-way move, dare I say finishing up around 85 before a pull-back. Ok, so that's a bit too presumptuous but this is GKP.... so anything could happen!

I hope so BasementGeek, as a holder, I sure hope so, it's just that we've been here before (took the liberty of using your chart to illustrate the bad luck of a GKP in the updated chart below):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/15745438/Trading/GKPCHART.png

I do hope that I'm wrong about this folly of a share, and maybe we'll get the sought after bounce.

Looking good for the coming weeks.

An update originally expected tomorrow has been delayed to Nov 13 because KRG requested it pending some significant news ...the sp is climbing fast and passed 60p as i write. if breaks 61 is still significant for chart?

Maybe a bit early to say?
Interesting RNS though IMHO, it's being bought, couple of weeks to wait, I'm hoping for another opportunity to dip my toe in.

Hi F4T

We've had a break of 55p. Are we looking at a buy signal? Have we had a 123 low?

Thanks

Some caution here. We have a potential short term H&S on the hourly. Neckline is at 50, so we need to stay above that tomorrow am. A break of 55 would give some confidence to the bulls.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...TXmU=&symbol=A%5EAPT

F4T

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...td%20%28daily%29.png

I think we need a breach of 87 for a significant move up. As we have now hit support between 127.20% and the 161.80% ext of the move 259.00 > 126.38 > 240.65; and hit the 161.80% ext of the more recent move down from 240.65, it is not inconceivable this is now the bottom - but let's breach that 87 before getting over excited

Thanks Remo.

Would a break of 58p likely signal this?

The 123 low formation is not just a short term trade, it could signal a change of trend and become an early entry for a long term trade.

hi
The 2 has not yet formed yet....
The price has to go lower from current levels for that to form.
ill post a chart up when i see a potential 123 low formation
Earlgreyhot wrote:

even for medium term there are no signals..GKP is in bear mode and until you see signs of green shoot then you cant do medium term views on this....well medium term views currently are all bearish..

manfrombrussels wrote:

Is anyone optimistic on GKP long term from a pure TA angle?

Edit: I should elaborate, I know most here are looking for shorter term trades, Remos 123 low (if/when it happens will be a shoter term trade, F4T's (great posts thanks) bullish harami gives possible prices up to 117/118 on the monthly chart. I just wondered if anyone else looked medium term or longer with TA ad in particular GKP.

remo,
Thanks as ever for your views.
Hopefully not too dumb a question here, but of the 123 formation I can clearly see the '2' is last week's 42/3, but what is your '1' SP at the moment? For that are you going right back to the mid-80s high seen in mid-to-late August 14 and waiting for the SP to clear that level before going long??
Many thanks and best regards to all,
Mike

until we get a higher high,,ie,,,123 low formation then you cant say the down trend is over.
correction are all part of trading and by waiting for the 123 low formation to form you are cutting down the risk.Very effective way of not catching a falling knife.
If gkp respects the new resistances then thats your warning of possible lower prices to follow.It has to break above the resistances and create new supports.
Just keep it simple with gkp for the moment . You will know when the down trend is over.Higher highs will form. Until then be cautious.

The links aren't working for me unfortunately.

I guess we are now looking for confirmation of the 1-2-3 low? Hopefully we are at the end of the down trend.

Hi all,

in preparation for this week I have re-done all my charts since we now have a confirmed bullish harami on the daily. First resistance of 54.25 held nicely on Friday. My aim here is to show key price points on the way up assuming the rise continues. I won't go into supports since these have been discussed to death down to 10p. IMO general markets in Europe should remain bullish on Monday but there is still uncertainty whether this will continue or not. That is the caveat.

Monthly:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Os%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Month not finished so bear this in mind. I drew fibs from the last two swing highs, 116.75 and 240.
The price points are clear and confirmed by at least two indicators each, so I won't elaborate; 60/61, 88/89 and 117/118. 60/61 is also the breakout point from the falling wedge.
RSI at support and in the apex.

Weekly:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...hdQs=&symbol=A%5EAPT

Nice volume the past two weeks. This indicated a bottom was near or had been reached in the low 40's.
Bullish divergence on MACD and RSI.
Breakout point from falling wedge at 60/61 is a convergence of three trendlines, so this area is strong resistance.
20week sma at 78.50.

Daily:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...He88=&symbol=A%5EAPT

Breakout point from falling wedge is 60/61.
20 sma is at 59
Larger falling wedge (red) crosses 89/90 area towards the end of October.

That's all on this.
F4T

Impressive call again F4T.

Thank you for posting your thoughts and well done.

Let's see what happens over the next week or two. IMO we are at a good entry point, but it is always risky trying to call a bottom before a reversal is confirmed, short term or otherwise. 42/43 gives 16/19% on a retest of 50 - that is my maths. A good return for a little patience.

Of course if you stay out then there is no risk of losing capital, and that is always a good philosophy in turbulent times.

I am not suggesting others follow.

GL all.
F4T

This looks like its getting ready to drop lower so careful

its hanging around 43 area ...so risky to go long

Wait to clear, and close above 48p.

Below 48p, 17p possible.

Below 48p, look for 17-13p range IMHO, DYOR.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

I shall be joining you.

GL

Pretty nice volume yesterday. It's been a long drop form 89 but at last I think it's time to buy, for me anyway.

GL
F4T

Thats where the original move higher started from as well.
To be ohnest the longer gkp hangs around this area the more likely it will go lower so you have to be careful when a share price hovers near a strong support for a few days.I dont go long on a first attempt if the price hovers near support area. I only go long on a first attempt basis if the price hits a strong support area from a distance. Not when its only 5 points away.

SE,
Look at that part of Remo's chart that dates back between 2004 and July 07 - 43 is the line off which the SP bounced several times during that period of time. Historic I know, but I'm pretty sure that's where the 43 support comes from.
Cheers,
Mike

Sorry to be dense Remo but could I ask why there is strong support at 43...

Hi mark
yep spot on mate..
The level with the strong support is 43
ive shown a monthly chart to see it better..


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp13thoct2014a.png

Hi Remo,
I have a support line at 46.15p from 2005 which seems to be holding at the moment. Could you please check with your charts as I am using Prorealtime.

Thanks,

Mark

GKP has to finish above 54 before you can say the worst is over. Even then its not guaranteed.
If 54 is respected ,ie,, holds as resistance then further falls will come. So first the share price must break above 54 and finish the day above it.Even then you dont buy it as you need higher highs first to signal a change in the trend early.Basically a 123 low .
short termers can still trade this share . Long termers not yet.
currently bullish engulfing pattern on gkp but this has to come at support so not the real deal for me.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp13thoct2014.png

As to a bottom, it's far too early to call. Let's see where we end up with on volume and price. Volume promising so far.

First resistance is more likely to be 54.25 but if we were wanting to catch a decent rise as it withers, I have a trendline in the 59 area. 54.25 is safer though. However high the bounce is today IMO we will definitely see 50/low 50's again, so it makes for good trading.